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2011年6月2日 星期四

[轉載]從蘇杯看世錦賽男雙: 成龍組合最受看好, 古陳不穩須加油

星洲日報 2011.06.01 報導:陳敏智

 與其他4個賽項比較,世界羽壇的男雙競爭是最為激烈的,中國、韓國、大馬、印尼及丹麥的男雙分庭抗禮,為球迷獻出一次又一次的精彩交綏。本屆蘇迪曼杯印尼的馬奇斯與亨德拉缺席著實令人遺憾,而其他四國的第一男雙在青島的狀態又是如何?從青島,我們看向8月的倫敦世界羽球錦標賽。

1.鄭在成與李龍大(韓國)
奪冠幾率:80%

 “成龍”組合的狀態向來十分穩定,隨著李龍大傷癒後更越打越好,蘇杯期間連挫中國的蔡贇與傅海峰、丹麥的馬蒂厄斯與莫根森。

 再說,兩人也是當今羽壇五大天王中唯一一支交手戰績全面佔上風的組合(對蔡贇與傅海峰7勝6負、對馬奇斯與亨德拉4勝3負、對古健傑與陳文宏10勝2負、對馬蒂厄斯與莫根森7勝3負),無論對上誰都是他們勝算較高。

 雖然鄭在成與李龍大在青島不敵陳文宏與雲天豪,在去年的大馬賽也曾輸給雲天豪與王順福,只因大馬組合在這兩場比賽採純防守戰術,偏偏該場防守又有如神助,論其他技術還是“成龍”更勝一籌。

2.蔡贇與傅海峰(中國)
奪冠幾率:60至70%

 在半決賽之前,“風雲”組合保有了蘇杯15連勝的傲人紀錄,但在對壘韓國時,“風雲”再被鄭在成與李龍大收伏,遭遇交手5連敗。講求全攻的風雲,遇上擅長平抽反擊的韓國組合,往往都會沒轍。其實,風雲在今年的表現並不理想,1月的大獎賽總決賽輸給馬蒂厄斯與莫根森、韓國賽不敵另一支丹麥組合彼德申與佐納斯,全英賽又輸給古健傑與陳文宏。只是,蘇杯期間看得出風雲已把狀態調整回來,若這幾個月狀態繼續上升,風雲依然是世錦賽的奪冠熱門。

3.古健傑與陳文宏(大馬)
奪冠幾率:50至60%

 鑽石組合今年的表現如何?請看看:全英賽打進決賽,但不敵丹麥人馬蒂厄斯與莫根森;韓國賽與印度賽晉級半決賽,但都遭到鄭在成與李龍大毒手;印度賽半決賽被日本組合橋本博且與平田典靖拉下馬;大馬賽首圈也被中國小將洪煒與沈燁淘汰。雖然古陳在大馬黃金大獎賽奪冠,但8強與半決賽卻被日本及荷蘭組合拖至3局。本屆蘇杯古陳分別拿下俄羅斯組合伊瓦諾夫與索佐諾夫,及印尼人尤利安多與莫哈末阿山,但兩隊只有印尼組合實力稍強。綜觀今年表現,狀態不穩定是古陳最大問題。若世錦賽來臨前他們依然無法改善這問題,想成為世界冠軍只怕沒戲了。

4.馬蒂厄斯與莫根森(丹麥)
奪冠幾率:40至50%

 丹麥組合在3月的全英賽稱霸後似乎已經滿足,接下來的瑞士賽第二圈就被荷蘭組合幹掉,蘇杯也是兵敗如山倒,苦吞3連敗,搞到丹麥教練不得不在決賽讓馬蒂厄斯坐冷板凳,讓莫根森搭檔老將佐納斯,但結果也是不敵風雲組合。不過,世界第一偶有佳作,今年內更曾兩度扳倒鄭在成與李龍大,不可不防。

5.馬奇斯與亨德拉(印尼)
奪冠幾率:40%

 去年在拿下廣州亞運會金牌之後,亨德拉的腳踝傷勢大大影響了這支印尼組合的表現,在1月的大獎賽總決賽期間棄戰、接下來的韓國賽、全英賽、亞錦賽甚至大馬賽都未能打進半決賽。加上兩人因籌備婚禮而放棄蘇杯,在今年其實沒歷經多少激戰的磨練,如此低迷狀態想要自2007年之後再次登頂世界之巔,難如登天!

後語:

 當然,除了以上的當今羽壇男雙五大天王最有冠軍相之外,其他的後起之秀如韓國的高成炫與柳延星、日本的橋本博且與平田典靖,以及台灣的方介民與李勝木,皆具備濃厚的黑馬本色。也許,今年的倫敦世錦賽將成為他們一炮而紅的舞台也說不定。

 只不過,俗語說:“10次殺球能10次過網,10次防守能過半就偷笑。”當今世上又有誰膽敢一而再的使用全防守戰術?

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