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2013年12月5日 星期四

[財經]美聯準會執行五年的量化寬鬆貨幣政策即將告終?!


此圖表為我根據美國聯準會每週公布的資料, 以每個月最後一週為基準的資料輸入 Excel 之後, 作成的折線圖

 2008年雷曼兄弟(Leman Brothers)倒閉引爆全球金融危機, 美國央行(聯邦準備理事會)為維持美國房貸市場的資金充裕及國內金融秩序穩定, 在將聯邦基金利率降至 0.00~0.25%之後, 幾乎已經用盡傳統貨幣政策工具, 最後只能仿效日本央行採行量化寛鬆政策, 以美國聯準會的紐約聯邦準備銀行透過公開市場操作帳戶買進聯邦政府扶持成立的金融機構發行的債券及他們擔保發行的房貸抵押債券及政府公債等資產來釋放資金到金融市場。

 雷曼兄弟在2008年 9 月15日宣布破產倒閉的遠因就是美國次級房貸市場的崩盤, 因為雷曼兄弟的大部分資金都來自借貸市場, 包括將各種不同信用等級的債券及貸款包裝組合起來, 再利用衍生性金融商品的方法, 換成另一個面貌, 再接受信評公司的評等, 就完全一個完全不同的金融商品, 像在台灣及香港引起紛爭的連動債(Minibond), 它只是名稱叫連動債, 但它的實質是連動債權證。雷曼兄弟倒閉之後, 更是引起美國房貸市場一片恐慌。於是美國 Fed 就透過公開市場操作釋出資金, 並公開承諾將提供市場足夠的流動性(資金)。

 不過到了2008年11月25日聯準會召開例行的政策會議(FOMC)後, 決定透過購買 1,000 億美元的由房利美(Freddie Mac), 房地美(Fannie Mae)及聯邦住宅貸款銀行(FHLB)等聯邦機構發行的債券, 或者由房利美, 房地美及吉利美(Ginnie Mae)等聯邦房貸發行的房貸抵押債券(MBS), 釋出 6,000 億美元的資金. 到了2009月 3 月18日, FOMC決定加碼 1.15 兆美元, 分別是機構債加碼 1,000 億美元, MBS加碼 7,500 億及收購美國政府公債 3,000 億美元.

 從美國紐約聯邦準備銀行公開市場操作帳戶中所持有這些資產數目變化, 可以看出它從2008年11月28日止當週的4,886.76億到2010年 6 月24日止當週的 2 兆710.86億增加了 1 兆5,824.1億美元, 這就是外界稱呼的QE1 因美國經濟在2010年第 2 季出現復甦跡象, Fed 開始慢慢減持這些資產. 不過經濟復甦似乎只是曇花一現, 基礎不夠穩定

 FOMC在 2010年11月會議決定進行第二輪的量化寬鬆, 投入的金額是6,000億美元, 期限到2011年6月. 外界對 Fed QE2的作法也有批評, 認為Fed 第一次的量化寬鬆措施所投入的金額已經把美國金融市場穩定下來, 這一波的作法只是"廉價美元"的作法, 也就是讓市場充斥過多的美元, 讓美元貶值, 幫助美國出口業而已, 不過對照下圖美國 GDP 成長率的變化, Fed 似乎已經預見2011年第1季需要額外的補助。


這個則是根據美國經濟分析局的資料, 從2008年第4季至2013年第3季為止的GDP成長率

 2011年 9 月13日的 FOMC 會議決定再進行第三波的量化寬鬆措施, 每個月增購850億美元至年底, 同年12月12日的 FOMC 會議決定今後每個月購入850億美元資產, 但是沒有期限, 使得QE3, 又被稱為"QE 無限", 因此 Fed 持有的聯邦機構債, 聯邦機構發行的 MBS 及美國公債到2013年11月27日達到 3 兆 6,605.84億美元. Fed 主席不是沒有看到 Fed 持續施行量化寬鬆措施的風險, 5 月 22 日在國會聰證會時表示, Fed 可能考慮逐漸減少每個月收購買資產的金額, 此話一出, 立即引發金融市場的波濤, 美國10年期公債殖利率一下子由 2%以下躍升突破, 也讓一些原本投資新興市場債券市場的資金, 因為恐慌而大舉撤出。

 雖然 FOMC 9月的會議結果讓市場重新吃下定心丹, 且美國總統提名葉倫女士作為下屆的 Fed 主席, 根據她以往對於央行貨幣政策發表的演講, 市場認為她將為採取緩慢而穩健的步驟慢慢地收回 Fed 過去五年所釋出的資金, 不過近期也有人開始推測 Fed 將在今年12月的FOMC會議決定開始減少每個月 850 億美元收購資產的金額, 因為就業情況漸漸好轉, 再加柏南奇將在明年初任期屆滿, 希望在他任內開啟結束量化寬鬆的非傳統貨幣政策。

 這可是全球財經關注的大事, 在12月18日為期兩天的 FOMC 會議結束後將會揭曉...

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