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2010年5月14日 星期五

[湯姆斯盃]準決賽, 印尼戰日本, 馬來西亞迎中國

 日本隊在本屆湯姆斯盃締造記錄, 首次打進準決賽, 一方面是因為籤運佳, 另一面也是本身球員努力奮戰換來的, 因為若不是他們能夠在小組賽逆轉擊敗地主馬來西亞隊, 他們可能就會在八強賽就遇上中國, 丹麥或印尼, 而比較沒有機會闖進四強.

 而近期頗為四方關注的田兒賢一將挑戰他的偶像--印尼的天才球星陶菲克, 向他討教網前搓球的技巧. 田兒賢一在本屆湯姆斯盃目前只有一敗兩勝的戰績, 唯一的一敗是輸給目前排名世界第一的李宗偉, 而陶菲克雖然是三戰皆捷, 但是在兩次面對印度的 Kashyap Parupalli 都是打到第三盤才獲勝, 以纏鬥力及體力來說可能會略遜田兒賢一, 不過以技巧及實力來說, 仍高於田兒賢一. 兩人的勝負就要看誰能更利用自身的優勢獲勝.

 日本隊的第一男雙不管是對馬來西亞的橋本博且/平田典靖, 或者是對德國時的遠藤大由/廣部好輝都是落敗, 成為隊中的軟肋, 而印尼隊肯定會派出基多/塞提阿萬來搶攻這一點.

 第二男單要看索尼的背傷的情況如何, 就算Sony不能上場, 以西蒙來鬥日本的佐佐木翔獲勝的機率也不低, 再加上印尼的第二男雙也不弱, 日本湯姆斯盃的隊長佐藤翔治可能無法上場....

 我個人的預測是印尼以3-0或3-1擊敗日本, 晉級決賽.

項目 印尼 比分 日本 總比分
MS1 陶菲克 21-9 21-14
田兒賢一 1-0
MD1 基多/塞提阿萬 21-9 21-14
早川賢一/數野健太 2-0
MS2 西蒙 19-21 21-13 11-21
佐佐木翔 2-1
MD2 維第安托/亞爾文 21-14 22-20
平田典靖/遠藤大由 3-1
MS3 倫巴卡
佐藤翔治

* 結果日本隊為解決第一男雙軟肋的問題, 把早川賢一/數野健太拉上來當第一男雙, 把橋本博且/平田典靖及遠藤大由/廣部好輝拆對, 把其中表現較好的平田典靖及遠藤大由抓來配對.

 至於今天的重頭戲, 地主馬來西亞隊迎戰中國, 即使李宗偉能夠扛下林丹, 古健傑/陳文宏能夠頂得住蔡贇/傅海峰, 馬來西亞的後面三點可以完全令中國隊放心, 不是說瞧不起黃綜翰, 札克里/雲天豪/麥喜俊, 哈菲茲, 陳俊翔等人的實力, 而是陳金, 鮑春來及徐晨/郭振東平常的表現就非常穩健, 少有失常, 所以中國晉級決賽的機會有80%, 只是總比分較難預測, 3-2, 3-1或3-0都有可能....

項目 馬來西亞 比分 中國 總比分
MS1 李宗偉 17-21 8-21
林丹 0-1
MD1 古健傑/陳文宏 15-21 10-21
蔡贇/傅海峰 0-2
MS2 黃綜翰 16-21 7-21
陳金 0-3
MD2 札克里/雲天豪
徐晨/郭振東
MS3 哈菲茲
鮑春來

 結果在李宗偉以 0-2 輸給林丹之後, 雙方的士氣消長明顯, 即使古健傑/陳文宏努力想要扭轉局勢, 也無力回天. 中國晉級決賽, 將與印尼爭奪湯姆斯盃.

2 則留言:

  1. 同意麥經理的分析,
    印尼也許有機會3-0橫掃,
    不過還是要看田兒扮演怎樣的開路先鋒吧,

    馬來對中國,
    雖然私心希望馬來獲勝,
    不過事實上來說有困難,
    這次杯賽只看了一場宗偉的比賽,
    狀況上感覺還算維持不錯,
    不過應該不是頂峰,
    還是有出現一些過於輕鬆的失誤,
    就看林丹的狀況到哪邊,
    男雙第一點,應該古陳的狀況比較好,
    剩下三點...
    可能需要Hafiz發揮全英冠軍的實力吧...
    或許這樣馬來才有機會3-2勝中國吧....
    期待奇蹟...

    回覆刪除
  2. 只能說事實還是根據事實的基本邏輯進行, 並沒有出現我們期望的意外!!

    回覆刪除

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